Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased to 14.45% in November from 16.05% in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline and the softest reading since October 2020, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
The downward trend reflects a sharp turnaround from last year’s highs, when consumer prices peaked at 34.8%, driven by currency depreciation, fuel subsidy removal and supply disruptions.
With the exception of a brief uptick in March, inflation has trended lower through most of 2025, pointing to easing price pressures and early signs of macroeconomic stabilisation.
Economists say the slowdown reflects a combination of improved foreign exchange conditions, tighter monetary policy and easing supply-side constraints.
Food prices, core inflation ease
Food inflation — the largest contributor to headline inflation — slowed to 11% in November from 13.1% in October, supported by stronger harvests and improved domestic supply.
On a year-on-year basis, food inflation declined by 28.85 percentage points compared with 39.9% recorded in November 2024.
However, the statistics agency cautioned that the sharp annual drop partly reflects a statistical base effect.
“The significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year,” the NBS said in its Consumer Price Index report issued on Monday.
Even so, analysts note that easing food prices is critical for household welfare, given that food accounts for the largest share of consumer spending in Africa’s most populous nation.
Beyond food, underlying price pressures also softened. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slowed for the fifth consecutive month to 18% in November, down from 18.7% in October and the lowest level since February 2023.
The decline suggests that broader cost pressures, including transport, housing and services, are beginning to ease as exchange rate volatility moderates and imported inflation wanes.
Monthly prices are till creeping higher
Despite the improvement in annual readings, inflation rose on a month-on-month basis, highlighting lingering pressures at the consumer level.
Headline inflation increased by 1.22% in November, up from 0.93% in October, indicating that prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower annual pace.
“This means that in November 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in October 2025,” the NBS said.
Food inflation also edged higher month-on-month to 1.13% from 0.37% previously, driven by rising prices of staple and protein-rich food items, including tomatoes, cassava, eggs, crayfish, onions and peppers.
Currency stability underpins outlook
Analysts say the naira’s relative stability has played a central role in easing inflationary pressures, particularly by reducing the cost of imported goods and production inputs.
“Nigeria’s headline inflation is expected to ease in November, supported by forex stability that has reduced pass-through pressures on imported goods,” SCM Capital said in a note issued ahead of the CPI release. The firm added that the reopening of borders, lower input costs and improved domestic supply conditions were helping to ease both food and non-food inflation.
As of October 31, the naira was the strongest it has been since the year began, closing at ₦1,421.73/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market.
