S&P Global Ratings has revised the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) sovereign outlook to positive for the first time in nearly five years, a move officials say could boost investor sentiment ahead of the country’s debut Eurobond issuance.
The decision, which marks an upgrade from “stable”, was announced in a statement released last week, where the agency also affirmed Congo’s ‘B-’ long-term and ‘B’ short-term local- and foreign-currency sovereign credit ratings.
The last time S&P assigned a positive outlook to Southern Africa nation was in July 2021.
“The positive outlook reflects our expectation that DRC will make further progress on improving tax administration and fiscal outcomes, benefiting from positive terms of trade, volume export growth, and external policy anchors, including DRC’s Extended Credit Facility Arrangement with the IMF,” the agency said.
The rating shift comes just days after authorities in Kinshasa announced plans to raise $750 million in April through the country’s first-ever Eurobond. Officials say the proceeds will be used to finance road, logistics and power projects, marking the mineral-rich nation’s formal entry into international debt markets.
Finance Minister Doudou Likunde welcomed the upgrade, describing it as a vote of confidence ahead of the bond sale.
The government viewed the decision “as an important recognition of the DRC’s economic resilience and the Government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability,” he said in a statement seen by Reuters.
IMF-backed reforms support outlook
S&P’s decision builds on a cautiously optimistic assessment by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which recently reviewed Congo’s reform programme under its Extended Credit Facility.
According to the agency, fiscal reforms aligned with IMF conditions are expected to gradually broaden the country’s revenue base.
“These reforms aim to maintain revenue at 14% to 15% of GDP — a significant improvement from the past decade’s average of about 11% — and partially decouple public finances from the mining sector, which generates over 40% of state revenue,” S&P said.
The agency also highlighted DRC’s strong growth momentum, driven largely by the mining sector.
Sustained investment in copper production has lifted real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by more than 40% since 2020, while exports now account for around 50% of GDP, double the level recorded in 2019.
S&P expects external balances to improve further as two large mining projects — the Kamoa-Kakula complex operated by Canada’s Ivanhoe Mines and the Tenke Fungurume mine run by China’s CMOC — expand output.
Security risks remain a key constraint
Despite the positive outlook, S&P cautioned that Congo’s security situation remains fragile and continues to weigh on investment and fiscal stability.
“The security situation in DRC remains unstable, posing significant risks to fiscal stability and deterring investment, despite recent diplomatic progress,” the agency noted.
In December 2025, Congo and Rwanda signed the US-mediated Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity, alongside agreements aimed at boosting regional economic integration and mining cooperation. A parallel peace initiative led by Qatar has also raised hopes of unlocking up to $21 billion in potential investment.
However, ongoing violence involving the M23 rebel group in eastern Congo continues to undermine these efforts. S&P estimates that defence and exceptional security spending now accounts for about 3.4% of GDP annually, diverting resources from development priorities and slowing the pace of reform.
Analysts say the upgrade signals improving fundamentals but also underscores the structural risks that will shape DRC’s market debut.
