Nigerian stock market report for the last week of July 2025

Nigerian Stock Market Weekly Report

Picture a bustling Lagos marketplace where the usual crowd of eager traders has thinned to a select group of discerning buyers, yet the prices of the finest goods continue to rise. This metaphor perfectly captures the paradox that unfolded on the Nigerian Exchange during the week ending July 25th, 2025. 

While trading volume plummeted dramatically, from 17.5 billion shares to just 3.7 billion shares, a staggering 79% decline, and total value traded dropped from N500.8 billion to N112.3 billion, the market’s leading barometer told a remarkably different story.

Like a master chef reducing a rich stock to concentrate its flavors, the Nigerian market seemed to distill its trading activity into higher-quality, more purposeful transactions. The NGX All-Share Index defied the volume decline by surging 2.18% to close at 134,452.93 points, while market capitalization expanded to an impressive N85.055 trillion. 

This divergence between quantity and quality suggests that institutional and sophisticated investors were making strategic moves, focusing on fundamentally sound companies rather than engaging in speculative trading.

The week’s trading patterns resembled a carefully curated auction where 60 equities appreciated in value compared to just 43 that declined, indicating broad-based optimism despite the reduced participation. With standout performers like THE INITIATES PLC soaring 60.82% and ACADEMY PRESS PLC jumping 33%, the market demonstrated that when volume concentrates, volatility can create significant opportunities for both gains and losses.

Key Market Metrics Dashboard

Market Analysis Narrative

Here’s what caught our attention: even with volume cratering, Financial Services still soaked up 57.6% of all shares and 42.1% of cash. That tells us institutions aren’t abandoning banks; they’re simply done chasing after last week’s parabolic prints. Agriculture (7.4%) and Oil & Gas (6.9%) filled the gap, marking a classic rotation into value and commodities.

Dig deeper and the participation gets even narrower. Access Holdings, UBA, and Japaul Gold accounted for just over 20% of the entire week’s volume. When three tickers dominate the tape, price discovery elsewhere slows, precisely what we saw in the mid-cap arena, where spreads widened but prices drifted higher.

Sector indices confirm the pivot: Industrial Goods (+4.66%) and MERI Growth (+4.42%) led the charge, while Insurance (+3.07%) staged a welcome rebound. Banks still advanced (+1.84%), but the real story was balance-sheet heavyweights like Presco (+22.5%) and Nigerian Enamelware (+32.7%) grabbing headlines.

From a sentiment standpoint, Wednesday told the tale: turnover troughed at ₦17.0 billion, yet decliners (37) still outpaced advancers (30), a sign of profit-taking without panic. By Friday, buyers re-emerged (48 winners vs. 22 losers) on a ₦24.2 billion value, signaling fresh cash waiting below the market.

Why the sudden cooldown? Three drivers stand out:

1. Event fatigue after the prior week’s earnings-run positioning.
   
2. The bond listing of Craneburg’s 22% infrastructure issue drew income seekers away from equities.
   
3. Corporate actions lull—only a tiny ₦0.02 dividend markdown at Mutual Benefit Assurance was announced.
   

The pattern is clear: money rotated from headline-grabbing banks into lower-beta industrials and select insurers, keeping the index grinding higher even as liquidity took a breather.

You can read our analysis of the NGX stock market for week 4 of July here for a recap of the previous trading week

Winners & Losers

Top 10 Gainers

If you held The Initiates Plc, you pocketed 61% in just five sessions.

Top 10 Decliners

Most decliners were micro-caps, classic profit-taking after speculative spikes.

Sector Performance Deep Dive

Volume share: Financials 57.6%, Agriculture 7.4%, Oil & Gas 6.9%. Liquidity remains squarely in the banks.

Volume & Value Analysis

• Turnover down 78-79% from last week’s spike, signalling the digestion phase.
  
• The top 3 equities (Access, UBA, Japaul Gold) captured 20.2% of shares and 17.3% of value.
  
• The ETF desk was quiet, with 134,000 units traded worth ₦15.36 million, representing a 19% decrease from the previous week.
  
• Bond turnover steady at ₦32.13 m on 38 deals.
  

Daily Market Progression

Momentum bottomed mid-week before regaining steam in Friday’s close.

Corporate Actions & Market Events

• Bond Listing: Craneburg EKSG Motorway ₦32.5 bn, 22% guaranteed infrastructure bond listed 21 Jul 25.
  
• Suspension: MRS Oil shares were suspended on 25 Jul pending voluntary delisting.
  
• Dividend Mark-down: Mutual Benefit Assurance went ex-dividend ₦0.02 on 25 Jul.
  

What This Means for Your Investment Portfolio

Market Momentum & Your Holdings

Strong Weekly Performance

• NGX All-Share Index gained 2.18% to 134,452.93 points
• Market cap reached ₦85.055 trillion – a significant milestone
• Year-to-date returns remain robust at 30.63%

What this means: If you hold diversified Nigerian equities, you likely saw portfolio gains this week. The 30.63% YTD return significantly outpaces most global markets and inflation, validating Nigerian equity allocations.

Volume Concerns Signal Caution

• Trading volume plummeted 79% from 17.5 billion to 3.7 billion shares
• Value dropped 78% from ₦500.7 billion to ₦112.3 billion
• Fewer deals: 138,250 vs 142,082 last week

What this means: Despite price gains, the dramatic volume decline suggests institutional profit-taking or a reduction in retail participation. Consider taking some profits if you’re overweight on Nigerian equities, as thin trading could amplify volatility.

Sector Rotation Opportunities

Financial Services Dominance

• Commanded 57.62% of trading volume and 42.13% of value
• Banking Index up 44.24% YTD with strong momentum
• Top performers: Access Holdings, UBA leading volume

Portfolio Action: If underweight financials, consider adding exposure. The sector’s liquidity and performance make it a core holding; however, avoid concentrating above 30% of your Nigerian allocation.

Consumer Goods Surge

• Consumer Goods Index exploded 67.33% YTD – the top performer
• Weekly gain of 2.81% shows continued momentum

Portfolio Action: Consumer goods stocks appear overvalued after such gains. If you hold positions, consider partial profit-taking or setting trailing stop-losses at 15-20% below current levels.

Oil & Gas Lagging

• Oil/Gas Index down 9.72% YTD – the worst performer
• Only 0.87% weekly gain shows continued weakness
• Sector weight: Just 7% of total trading volume

Portfolio Action: Oil & gas stocks may offer value opportunities, but wait for clearer technical signals or improved commodity prices before adding exposure.

Individual Stock Implications

High-Conviction Winners

THE INITIATES PLC (+60.82%), ACADEMY PRESS (+33.00%), NIGERIAN ENAMELWARE (+32.68%)

What this means: These explosive gains suggest specific catalysts or takeover speculation. If you don’t own these, avoid chasing. If you do, consider reducing positions as such gains rarely sustain.

Value Trap Warnings

SECURE ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY (-23.97%), OMATEK VENTURES (-23.93%), MEYER PLC (-21.43%)

What this means: These steep declines often signal fundamental problems. If you hold these stocks, conduct immediate fundamental analysis or consider exiting to preserve capital.

Fixed Income & Alternative Investments

New Bond Opportunity

• Craneburg EKSG Motorway 22% bonds listed this week
• 20-year tenor with semi-annual payments
• Infrastructure focus with government backing

Portfolio Action: The 22% coupon is attractive in the current environment. Consider a 5-10% allocation for income-focused portfolios, but assess credit risk given the 20-year duration.

ETF Market Stability

• ETP trading volume: ₦15.4 million (down from ₦18.9 million)
• STANBICETF30 leading with ₦5.8 million in trades

What this means: ETF volumes remain stable despite overall market decline, suggesting these products provide good diversification and liquidity for smaller investors.

Risk Management Considerations

Liquidity Risk Alert

The 79% volume drop creates several risks:

• Wider bid-ask spreads may increase trading costs
• Reduced price discovery could lead to mispricing
• Exit difficulties for larger positions

Portfolio Action: Avoid making large trades during low-volume periods. Consider using limit orders and splitting large transactions.

Corporate Action Impact

• MRS Oil Nigeria suspended and delisting – complete loss if you held shares
• Mutual Benefits Assurance ex-dividend (₦0.02 dividend)

What this means: Stay current on corporate announcements. Delistings represent total loss risks, while dividend actions provide income but may cause temporary price weakness.

Strategic Portfolio Recommendations

Immediate Actions (Next 1-2 Weeks)

1. Rebalance if overweight Nigerian equities – consider trimming to 15-20% of total portfolio
2. Take profits on consumer goods holdings – the 67% YTD gain suggests overvaluation
3. Review oil & gas positions for potential value opportunities
4. Consider the new 22% infrastructure bond for 5-10% fixed income allocation

Medium-Term Positioning (1-3 Months)

1. Maintain core financial services exposure but diversify across multiple banks
2. Watch for volume recovery before adding significant new positions
3. Monitor corporate earnings season for fundamental confirmation of price moves
4. Build cash reserves to capitalize on any market corrections

Risk Tolerance Adjustments

• Conservative investors: Reduce Nigerian equity allocation to 10-15%, increase bond exposure
• Moderate investors: Maintain 15-20% allocation but diversify across sectors
• Aggressive investors: Consider selective stock picking in lagging sectors for value opportunities

Key Metrics to Monitor

• Weekly trading volume – watch for recovery above ₦300 billion
• NGX Banking Index – key support at 1,500 level
• Consumer Goods Index – potential resistance around 3,000
• Oil prices globally – will drive local oil & gas stock performance
• Inflation data – affects real returns on your gains

Remember: The Nigerian market’s 30.63% YTD performance is exceptional, but the volume decline suggests caution. Focus on profit-taking, diversification, and maintaining appropriate position sizes rather than aggressive new investments.

When liquidity pauses yet prices continue to climb, the next big move usually follows a surge in volume. Keep your eye on the tape; the smart money always shows its hand first.

Please note that this analysis reflects market observations and institutional patterns, rather than personalized investment advice. Always conduct your due diligence and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.