South Africa’s economy is projected to grow 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts conducted between August 8–13. The uptick would mark the country’s third straight quarter of positive growth, improving from 0.1% in Q1 after a 0.4% gain in Q4 last year.
The official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are due from the South African Reserve Bank on September 9.
The forecast improvement is attributed to a turnaround in manufacturing and mining, which bounced back from deep contractions in the previous quarter. Johan Els, Chief Economist at Old Mutual Limited, is more optimistic, projecting 0.8% growth.
He said, “If you look at mining, manufacturing, utilities — all of those sectors have turned around quite sig
US tariffs hit exports
The rebound comes against the backdrop of global trade disruptions. Earlier in August, the US retained its 30% duty on all South African exports and a 25% levy on automotive shipments. The US is South Africa’s second-largest export destination after China, with shipments worth $8.8 billion in 2024.
The tariffs have already taken a toll: auto exports to the US plunged 85% in May. President Cyril Ramaphosa has described the economy as being in a “state of emergency” and has pledged to diversify export markets while pursuing talks with Washington. Uncertainty over the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act further clouds the outlook.
Jobs weaken, mining resilient
Labour market pressures remain acute. Stats SA data show unemployment rose to 33.2% in Q2, up 0.3 percentage points, as the services sector shed 42,000 jobs, agriculture 24,000, and the informal sector 19,000.
Mining, however, provided some relief. Frank Blackmore, Lead Economist at KPMG South Africa, noted resilience in platinum and palladium demand, with buyers stockpiling ahead of tariff impacts. “We’ve seen platinum and palladium indicators rising, possibly as international customers buy upfront,” he said.
Despite modest growth projections, analysts warn that without structural reforms and tariff relief, South Africa’s economy faces continued headwinds — with unemployment, trade uncertainty, and fragile investor confidence weighing on the outlook.
