This week would make you sigh for most African economies. But companies are showing lots of promise.
Trump’s tariff could affect Africa’s non-oil exports, threatening everything from cocoa to cotton. Nigeria’s banks posted trillion-naira profits—but when measured in dollars, they’re barely in Africa’s top five. South Africa is having a parliamentary budget meltdown. Kenya just cut interest rates to revive a tired private sector. And Nigeria? Oil prices are dipping, and with them, any remaining hopes for forex stability.
The core five
Trump’s tariffs threaten Africa’s non-oil exports—and years of AGOA gains
Since 2001, Africa’s non-oil exports to the U.S. have surged 241%, thanks to AGOA. That progress is now on the line. Cocoa faces 21% duties, textiles up to 54%. With key sectors like apparel and agriculture in the crosshairs, this isn’t just a trade story—it’s a development story.
Full story: Finance in Africa
Nigerian banks still trail peers in terms of profits
FX revaluation helped Nigerian banks post eye-watering 2024 profits. But in dollars? Not a single Nigerian lender made Africa’s top five. Egypt and South Africa continue to lead in earnings and asset strength. The naira might be winning headlines—but it’s losing ground in real terms.
Full story: Finance in Africa
South Africa’s budget gridlock deepens as VAT hike faces resistance
After two parliamentary wins, the VAT hike is back under fire. The ANC wants higher taxes to fund social programmes. The DA wants leaner government. The market wants clarity.
Full story: Finance in Africa
JP Morgan bails on Nigeria’s carry trade, flags $10bn capital flight risk
In a dramatic reversal, JP Morgan has advised investors to exit Nigerian OMO and Treasury bills. Why? Sub-$60 oil, Trump’s trade drama, and rising global volatility. They’re warning of naira devaluation past ₦1,700/$1 and up to $10bn in portfolio outflows.
Full story: Finance in Africa
Kenya cuts interest rates to 10% to nudge banks into lending again
Kenya’s central bank is trying to revive private sector credit—again. Lending edged up slightly in March, but bad loan provisions are also climbing. Policymakers are hoping this latest rate cut will tip the balance.
Full story: Finance in Africa
And others (because not everything can make the top five)
- Madagascar faces 60,000 job losses as tariffs crush its textile exports
The government is scrambling for a regional response. Read - Nigeria’s oil-linked optimism fades as Brent crashes to $60
With 90% of FX earnings tied to oil, Nigeria’s macro optimism is cracking. Read - South Africa’s 1% VAT hike officially passes—but the private sector will bear the brunt. It’s going from 15% to 15.5%. Read
- Egypt’s inflation ticks back up to 13.6%—rate cuts now unlikely
Food and utility prices are the biggest culprits. Read - Ivory Coast hints at raising cocoa export taxes in response to U.S. tariffs
And possibly redirecting trade to Europe. Read
What to watch this week
- Will AGOA become collateral damage in the Trump tariff era?
- How fast can Nigerian banks diversify away from FX gains into sustainable lending?
- Will Kenya’s rate cut finally move the private sector needle—or trigger more provisioning?
- And in South Africa, will political brinkmanship derail fiscal recovery before it begins?
Also coming up this week:
- How African countries handle taxation on the roads.
- The little known startup that upstaged a household fintech for revenue collection
Until then—remember: numbers can tell any story you want it to.
