Kenya is reviving negotiations with the US as its trade deficit with Washington widens sharply, underscoring growing pressure on Nairobi to rebalance trade flows with one of its largest export markets.
Talks are set to resume next week in Washington, according to Kenya’s trade minister, as the East African nation seeks a bilateral agreement that would lift non-tariff barriers and improve access for Kenyan goods into the US market.
“Negotiations will be held from Monday through to Thursday in Washington, followed by one or two meetings after that to firm up deliberations,” said Lee Kinyanjui, confirming Kenya’s return to the negotiating table.
Trade gap widens as imports surge
The renewed push comes as Kenya’s imports from the US climbed to $930.8 million in the first 11 months of 2025, according to data from the US Census Bureau reviewed by Finance in Africa. The latest figure already exceeds the $771.3 million recorded for the whole of 2024 and marks the highest import bill since 2015.
By contrast, Kenya’s exports to the US stood at $788.6 million, leaving a trade deficit of $142 million, sharply wider than the $34.2 million gap recorded in 2024.
The data highlights Kenya’s persistent appetite for American goods, even as export growth struggles to keep pace.
Kenya’s imports from the US are dominated by high-value items including machinery, aircraft, petroleum products and plastics, while its exports are concentrated in apparel, coffee, tea, macadamia nuts and titanium ores.
Economists say the widening imbalance strengthens Nairobi’s case for seeking deeper and more predictable market access, particularly for manufactured and value-added exports.
Talks revive a stalled process
Kenya and the US first opened discussions on a bilateral trade framework in 2020, during Donald Trump’s first term, as Nairobi sought to safeguard market access beyond existing preference programmes.
That process continued under Joe Biden, with negotiations shifting towards a trade and investment partnership aimed at reducing non-tariff barriers. However, the talks were not concluded before Trump returned to office last year, leaving the framework unfinished.
The resumption of negotiations suggests both sides are seeking to stabilise commercial ties amid renewed uncertainty in US-Africa trade relations, which have been strained by tariff disputes and policy reversals.
AGOA renewal offers limited relief
The revival of talks also coincides with Washington’s decision to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) earlier this month, a move that has provided temporary relief to African exporters after months of uncertainty.
The programme, which grants duty-free access for more than 1,800 products from qualifying sub-Saharan African countries, was extended by one year to December, with the renewal applied retroactively from September 30, 2025.
While the extension signals that the US is not abandoning Africa-focused trade preferences entirely, its short duration has reinforced caution among African governments.
The US House of Representatives had initially passed a three-year extension, but the Senate cut it back to a single year, a compromise that has fuelled concerns about the programme’s long-term viability.
Remarks from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have further added to the uncertainty.
Greer said AGOA would be updated to provide greater market access for US businesses and align with America First trade priorities, raising questions about how future revisions may reshape benefits for African exporters.
Trade deals elsewhere
As trade relations with the US remain fragile, Kenya has also stepped up efforts to deepen access to China, its other major trading partner.
Last month, Nairobi announced a preliminary agreement with China granting tariff-free access to 98.2% of Kenyan goods under an Early Harvest Arrangement, while negotiations on a broader trade agreement continue.
Officials say the move could significantly lift export earnings and help rebalance Kenya’s trade position by improving access to China’s roughly $19 trillion economy. The concession forms part of Beijing’s wider push to strengthen economic ties with African partners amid rising global trade tensions.
China has pledged to eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African countries, a commitment finalised last week, with duty-free access scheduled to take effect from May 1, 2026.
Despite the move, Kenya continues to run a sizeable trade deficit with China, a challenge policymakers hope the new concessions will gradually address.
For now, Nairobi’s immediate focus is securing more favorable trade arrangements with the US, even as regional and global uncertainty deepens.
