Nigeria’s export earnings declined for the second straight year in 2024, falling by 8.5% to $57.9 billion, even as naira-based export figures soared.
The divergence, highlighted by data from the International Trade Centre (ITC), a multilateral agency, underscores the growing toll of the naira’s steep depreciation on the country’s external trade position.
Exports dropped from $63.3 billion in 2022 to $60.65 billion in 2023, following a major devaluation of the naira. The slide continued in 2024, when the currency weakened even further.
Imports also fell. Africa’s most populous nation imported goods worth $47.4 billion in 2024, down from $60.58 billion in 2023 and $60.50 billion in 2022. Nonetheless, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus in all three years.
Oil still dominates, but pressure mounts
Oil continued to dominate Nigeria’s exports, accounting for nearly 90% of total earnings between 2022 and 2024. Over the three-year period, oil exports brought in $163.2 billion, out of the country’s total $181.8 billion in export earnings. However, dollar revenues declined each year, reflecting exchange rate pressures.
Crude oil earnings fell from $57.4 billion in 2022 to $55.6 billion in 2023, then dropped to $50.3 billion in 2024—a year-on-year decline of over $5 billion.
Non-oil exports showed mixed results. Cocoa exports rose steadily from $679 million in 2022 to $759 million in 2023 and surged to $2.6 billion in 2024. Fertiliser exports, however, declined from $1.9 billion in 2022 to $935.4 million last year. Earnings from ores and residues jumped to $824.4 million in 2024, up from $158.6 million a year earlier.
Combined, cocoa, fertilisers, ores, and residues accounted for nearly half of the remaining 10% of export earnings. Other notable contributors included oil seeds and copper.
Naira depreciation distorts trade metrics
While dollar-based export earnings skyrocketed, naira earnings told a very different story. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), total exports in naira terms more than doubled to ₦77.4 trillion in 2024 from ₦36 trillion the year before, and nearly tripled from ₦26.8 trillion in 2022.
Economists attribute this widening gap to the naira’s sharp depreciation. “Currency value is key,” said Aliyu Ilias, an Abuja-based Economist. “We’ve been recording more exports in naira, but the dollar value has been falling because of the weaker exchange rate.”
Using Intelpoint’s average exchange rates, naira-adjusted dollar earnings stood at $62.9 billion in 2022, $55.4 billion in 2023, and $52.3 billion in 2024—in line with ITC’s estimates.
Naira hits record lows
The naira’s steep depreciation worsened in 2024 following its float in June 2023 and the removal of petrol subsidies under President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda.
Intelpoint data shows the naira fell 52% in 2023, from ₦425.9/$1 to ₦645.2/$1, and plunged a further 129.2% in 2024 to close the year at ₦1,478.9/$1—the sharpest annual decline in a decade. Since the beginning of this year, the naira has traded between ₦1,500 and ₦ 1,600 per $1.
Despite aggressive rate hikes, weak foreign reserves, and a fragile fiscal position kept the currency under pressure. “If you remove fuel subsidies, it is wrong to also float the naira,” Ilias noted. “All that did was to put pressure on the currency, and the result is what we’re seeing today.”
Intra-African trade grows, but global impact limited
In theory, a weaker currency should make exports more competitive. But Nigeria has seen limited gains, largely due to its narrow export base and volatile oil production.
One exception is within Africa, where Nigerian products have gained traction due to the relative strength of the West African CFA franc. Unaudited 2024 financials show export sales of Unilever Nigeria Plc, Cadbury Nigeria Plc, and Guinness Nigeria Plc surged to ₦22.8 billion, up from ₦9.92 billion in 2023.
“The backward integration that the manufacturers are doing is making exports more profitable than before, in addition to the depreciation in the currency,” said Muda Yusuf, CEO at Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise. “The returns on investments are higher when firms export.”
The naira’s exchange rate against the CFA franc has weakened significantly—from ₦0.76/CFA1 in June 2023 to ₦2.74/CFA1 as of August 14, 2025—enhancing the competitiveness of Nigerian goods in francophone markets.
Still, the country’s export structure remains a constraint. “When you devalue your currency, your exports should become more competitive,” said Sheriffdeen Tella, an economist at Olabisi Onabanjo University. “But if you rely on a single commodity with prices set externally, there’s little benefit.”
Despite an uptick in oil production from 1.2 million barrels/day in 2022 to 1.5 million in 2024, Nigeria continues to fall short of its 1.7 million barrel benchmark, largely due to pipeline vandalism and theft—forcing increased reliance on external borrowing.
The case for diversification
In December 2023, the Federal Government launched the Trade Policy of Nigeria (2023–2027), aimed at accelerating pro-poor growth through market-oriented policies consistent with Nigeria’s rights and obligations under the World Trade Organisation.
The policy seeks to create a fair, equitable platform to boost the country’s participation in global trade and is aligned with the Medium-Term National Development Plan (2021–2025) and Agenda 2050.
Analysts say breaking the cycle of declining dollar revenues will require structural reforms that move Nigeria away from raw commodity exports toward value-added production.
“We need to develop the real sectors—agriculture, manufacturing, and processing,” said Tella. “Instead of exporting cocoa, we should be exporting chocolate. That’s how you build resilience and increase forex earnings.”
Despite years of diversification pledges, implementation has lagged. Without a long-term national strategy and sustained investment, the naira is likely to remain vulnerable and export earnings exposed.
