South Africa’s exports to the US jumped 37% over the first ten months of 2025 despite facing steep tariffs and fresh trade barriers from Washington, data from the South African Revenue Service (SARS) show.
An analysis by Finance in Africa revealed that US-bound exports grew from R12.4 billion ($674 million) in January to R17 billion ($982 million) in October, reflecting a R4.6 billion ($322 million) or 37% increase.
By contrast, imports from the US fell during the 10 months, dropping from R17.2 billion to R16.2 billion in October.
Between January and October, the rand appreciated against the dollar, so while import value fell in local currency terms, it went from $919 million in January to $936 million in October.
The stronger export earnings come even as Africa’s most industrialised economy grapples with multiple sector-specific tariffs and a sweeping import tax imposed under President Donald Trump.
In February, Washington introduced a 25% levy on steel and aluminium — a major export earner for South Africa — before doubling the rate to 50% in July.
Pretoria was also hit with a 25% tariff on automobiles and vehicle parts in April, followed by a universal 30% tax on all US-bound goods from August 1 — the highest rate applied to any sub-Saharan African nation.
The White House said the measures were aimed at narrowing the trade deficit between the two countries while supporting manufacturing and job growth at home.
However, South African policymakers feared the tariffs would trigger major layoffs in the worst-hit sectors, deepening the country’s unemployment crisis and further weakening an already fragile economy.
Beyond the newly imposed tariffs, the US has also failed to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) after the programme expired in September, ending duty-free access to American markets for eligible African nations.
South Africa was among the countries hit by the lapse, adding to growing uncertainties over its foreign trade outlook.
Precious metals boom lifts gross earnings
Despite the mounting trade tensions with its third-largest export destination, South Africa’s overall export earnings continued to rise, reaching R192.2 billion ($7.95 billion) in October, up from R149 billion ($11.11 billion) in January.
The 30% surge was driven by stronger demand for gold, diamonds and raw aluminium, with precious metal exports climbing from R26 billion ($1.39 billion) at the start of the year to R48.4 billion($2.80 billion) in October — a 70% increase.
The improvement coincided with a sharp gold rally in early October, when prices climbed above $4,000 per ounce underpinned by rising geopolitical and global trade tensions.
Month-on-month, exports rose 2.8% from September’s R187 billion ($10.7 billion), helping to absorb a 7.6% rise in imports and resulting in a R15.6 billion ($902 million) trade surplus.
“This surplus was attributable to exports of R192.2 billion ($11.11bn) and imports of R176.6 billion ($10.2bn), including trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN),” SARS said in its latest Trade Statistics.
However, a closer look at the numbers shows that the surplus narrowed from R22.3 billion ($1.3 billion) in September, weighed down by higher energy purchases and supply-chain input costs.
“Import flows increased on the back of higher importation of crude oil, petroleum oils (excluding crude), and original equipment components,” the agency added.
Broader economy posts modest recovery
South Africa’s economy is showing signs of recovery beyond trade.
The unemployment rate fell for the first time this year, easing to 31.9% in Q3 2025 from 33.2% in Q2 — defying expectations of deeper job losses following Trump’s punitive tariffs.
This marks the lowest level recorded since Q4 2024 as the economy added 248,000 new jobs.
Broader activity strengthened in the three months leading to September, with real GDP expanding by 0.5% — reflecting the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. Nine out of the ten major sectors recorded expansion in Q3, including mining and construction, both of which have been under pressure in recent quarters.
Analysts point to stronger commodity prices, fiscal discipline, subdued inflation and improved credit ratings as key drivers behind the momentum.
“If policy reform continues and fixed capital investment gains momentum, we could lift growth sustainably above the current levels,” says Maarten Ackerman, Chief Economist at Citadel Wealth Management.”
The World Bank, in its latest Africa Pulse report, forecasts that South Africa’s average GDP growth will edge up from 0.5% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025, before accelerating to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027.
Still, risks remain.
The economy continues to underperform relative to pre-pandemic levels, constrained by elevated unemployment, weak business conditions and persistent supply chain bottlenecks, the bank said.
Policy uncertainty adds pressure
A tougher AGOA agreement being pushed by US lawmakers could further dampen South Africa’s outlook.
After the programme expired in September, the AGOA Extension and Bilateral Engagement Act or “AGOA 2.0”, was introduced in Congress, proposing terms that differ sharply from the original pact.
The bill would extend AGOA for two years but only for countries that support US economic and foreign policy priorities — a criterion lawmakers argue South Africa has not met.
Senator John Kennedy, who sponsored the bill, said Pretoria has aligned itself too closely with America’s “competitors and adversaries,” including China and Russia.
In a notable hardening of stance, the draft legislation also contains a clause allowing Washington to revoke South Africa’s AGOA benefits entirely.
Before such a step can take effect, however, officials must conduct a comprehensive review of the bilateral relationship, followed by a sign-off from President Trump certifying that Pretoria has violated US national security interests.
The proposal marks the latest escalation in a months-long diplomatic standoff. US officials have repeatedly accused South Africa of undermining American interests, while Pretoria insists its foreign policy is non-aligned and driven by domestic priorities.
If enacted, the bill would strip South Africa of duty-free access to the US market — a major setback for exporters already grappling with steep tariffs and a strained domestic economy.
NB: Local currency figures were converted to US dollars using monthly average exchange rates for January, September and October which were R18.7/$1, R17.4/$1 and R17.3/$1, respectively.
