Ghana has exited default territory after Fitch Ratings upgraded its long-term foreign currency rating to ‘B-’ one step closer to the investment grade with relatively low risk.
The move marks a significant milestone in Ghana’s recovery from its worst financial crisis in decades.
The outlook is stable, meaning that Ghana’s creditworthiness is expected to remain relatively unchanged in the near future. Citing progress on debt restructuring, declining inflation, and signs of macroeconomic stabilization.
According to Fitch, the country is now on track to complete its external debt restructuring by end-2025 – a key condition for restoring full market access.
“We project Ghana’s public debt will fall to 60% of GDP by 2025, down from a peak of 93% in 2022,” Fitch said in its assessment, attributing the decline to nominal GDP growth, exchange rate gains, and spending discipline.
Ghana’s macro fundamentals have also improved.
Fitch forecasts the Bank of Ghana may begin easing policy rates from July 2025, a potential relief for local borrowers and businesses.
Meanwhile, the country’s external position has strengthened. A record current account surplus of 4.3% of GDP in 2024 – driven by gold exports and lower imports – is helping to rebuild foreign exchange reserves, which are projected to cover 3.9 months of imports by 2026, up from 1.6 months in 2022.
In local markets, falling Treasury bill yields and improved liquidity have supported the upgrade of Ghana’s long-term local currency rating. Government deposits stood at 4% of GDP by end-2024, and fiscal buffers are expected to grow modestly to 4.6% through 2026.
Still, Fitch flagged high debt service burdens as a lingering concern, with Ghana’s interest-to-revenue ratio projected to rise to 9.1% in 2025, above peer medians.
While Ghana compares favorably with many post-default economies, sustained fiscal discipline and external financing support will be critical to further upgrades.
Ghana’s economy is expected to grow 4% in 2025, underpinned by a rebound in agriculture and steady expansion in services and industry.
