Small businesses in South Africa that ship goods to the US are facing a tough festive season, with heavy tariffs from Washington slashing Black Friday sales by 66%, year-on-year, in November, according to the SME Export Index.
The data highlights a sharp turn for micro and small exporters who rely heavily on strong seasonal demand in the third quarter to boost annual revenue.
In a statement on Tuesday, Craig Lowman, CEO and co-founder of South African international shipping platform TUNL, described the impact as “catastrophic.”
“In a normal year, Black Friday is a clear peak, ” Lowman said. “The US-bound gross monthly volume (GMV) of shipments for Black Friday 2024 was around 60% above average monthly shipments.”
This year, however, sales fell 46% below the monthly average and 66% when compared with the same period last November, following a wave of US tariffs and the loss of the $800 de minimis threshold, he added.
The SME Export Index, compiled by TUNL, tracks real-world export figures for 1,850 South African small and micro exporters shipping to the US.
The index measures the gross merchandise value (GMV) of exports, providing a monthly barometer of how trade policy changes affect smaller businesses, a segment often overlooked in broader trade statistics and media coverage.
TUNL COO Aretha Cooper said the tariffs disproportionately affect smaller companies that lack the financial stamina to bear the growing cost burden.
“Most South African businesses experienced a knockout domestic Black Friday, but the period was not successful for South African brands that ship to the US,” Cooper noted.
“They simply do not have the finances to reduce the tariff impact on their US customers and have to pass the costs along to consumers.”
A tougher policy stance
The trade setbacks follow a series of US policy changes in 2025. On April 5, an executive order by US President Donald Trump ushered in a 10% baseline global tariff, affecting most South African SME exports.
Pretoria was later assigned a 30% reciprocal tariff, initially scheduled for April but finally implemented on August 8. Weeks later, on August 29, the $800 de minimis threshold was removed, meaning even small parcels are now subject to duties and entry fees.
These measures have hit exports across multiple sectors, including wine, apparel, food, homeware, and beauty products.
Cooper warned that the impact is likely to extend into 2026. “Businesses that export to the US are in for a tough festive season and an even tougher 2026,” she said, highlighting the ongoing uncertainty as the US Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of the tariffs.
The downturn in seasonal shipments is part of a sector-wide trend. Total US-bound exports fell 7.9% month-on-month in October, barely a month after the African Growth Opportunity Agreement, which provided duty-free access to American markets, ended.
