Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since early March has severed roughly one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, approximately 16 million tonnes annually sending benchmark urea prices surging more than 30% in the past month and exposing import-dependent African economies to sharp rises in food production costs.
The waterway, which handles the bulk of nitrogen-based fertiliser exports (urea and ammonia) from Gulf producers such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran, has seen daily ship traffic collapse by more than 95%, from around 130 vessels to single digits.
Nearly half of the globally traded urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser, originates in the region and must transit the strait. With commercial shipping largely halted following the escalation of US-Iran tensions, roughly 16 million tonnes of annual capacity remains trapped in the Gulf, according to UNCTAD and shipping analytics.
Urea prices, a key input for grain and cash-crop farming, have climbed from approximately $450–480 per tonne in late February to $600–720 per tonne, with some benchmarks recording gains of up to 50%. Ammonia prices have risen 24%. These increases mirror the volatility seen in the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis but are occurring at a faster pace and during the critical Northern Hemisphere planting season, amplifying risks to global agricultural margins.
Africa faces disproportionate exposure
While major producers such as China (roughly 30% of global output) and the United States maintain significant domestic capacity, sub-Saharan Africa where fertiliser use is already among the world’s lowest is acutely vulnerable. Gulf states supplied 16.7% of Africa’s total fertiliser imports in 2024, rising to 25% for nitrogen products. Many countries rely on sea-borne deliveries routed through Hormuz.
Country-level dependencies are stark. Sudan sources 54% of its fertiliser imports via the strait, Somalia 30% and Kenya 26%, according to UNCTAD data. East African nations, already grappling with high debt burdens and elevated borrowing costs, have limited fiscal space to absorb price shocks or secure alternative supplies.
Analysts warn that a prolonged disruption could reduce fertiliser application rates by 20–30% in vulnerable markets, directly translating into lower crop yields for staples such as maize, wheat and rice. In sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture accounts for 15–30% of GDP and employs the majority of the workforce in many countries, even modest yield declines risk exacerbating food insecurity for tens of millions. Higher input costs will feed through to consumer prices: fertiliser can represent up to 50% of grain production expenses in low-income regions.
Second-order effects compound the pressure. Gulf LNG and natural-gas shortages have already forced partial shutdowns of fertiliser plants in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Egypt, traditional alternative suppliers tightening global availability further. Phosphate production is also threatened by disrupted sulphur shipments from the Gulf, a key feedstock for Morocco’s massive export industry that serves African markets.
Market and economic ripple effects
Commodity traders have repriced risk aggressively. Nitrogen fertiliser futures have decoupled from energy correlations, trading on pure scarcity. For African importers, the combination of higher fertiliser, fuel and freight costs is inflating food import bills at a time when many currencies are already under pressure from elevated global interest rates. UNCTAD has highlighted that developing economies with high debt loads are least equipped to weather the dual energy-fertiliser shock.
Alternative producers, notably US nitrogen plants benefiting from cheap domestic gas and Russian exporters may capture market share over time, but short-term logistics constraints and the absence of strategic international fertiliser stockpiles mean immediate relief is limited. China’s recent export curbs, intended to protect domestic farmers, further restrict options for cash-strapped African buyers.
Outlook
Market participants expect urea prices to remain elevated until shipping lanes reopen or diplomatic progress eases the blockade. For Africa, the crisis underscores long-standing structural vulnerabilities: low fertiliser intensity, heavy reliance on imported inputs and thin foreign-exchange reserves. Without swift resolution or targeted international support such as emergency fertiliser financing facilities, the region risks a repeat of the 2022 food-price spike, but with fewer buffers and greater potential for social and economic fallout.
As planting decisions are finalised across the continent, the fertiliser shock is no longer a distant geopolitical headline; it is an immediate line item on African farm budgets and national food-security ledgers.
